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150128 ||| eng |
| 020 |
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|a 9781451872798
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Moriyama, Kenji
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| 245 |
0 |
0 |
|a Forecasting Inflation in Sudan
|c Kenji Moriyama, Abdul Naseer
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2009
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| 300 |
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|a 25 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a Sudan
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| 653 |
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|a Business cycles
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| 653 |
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|a Inflation
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| 653 |
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|a Cyclical indicators
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| 653 |
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|a Monetary economics
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| 653 |
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|a Economic Forecasting
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| 653 |
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|a Deflation
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| 653 |
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|a Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General
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| 653 |
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|a Agricultural prices
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| 653 |
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|a Economic forecasting
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| 653 |
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|a Forecasting
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| 653 |
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|a Money supply
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| 653 |
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|a Price Level
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| 653 |
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|a Monetary base
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| 653 |
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|a Forecasting and Other Model Applications
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| 653 |
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|a Economic growth
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| 653 |
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|a Prices
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
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| 653 |
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|a Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis
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| 653 |
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|a Money and Monetary Policy
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Naseer, Abdul
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| 041 |
0 |
7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
0 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
5 |
0 |
|a 10.5089/9781451872798.001
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| 856 |
4 |
0 |
|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2009/132/001.2009.issue-132-en.xml?cid=23043-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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| 082 |
0 |
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained
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