Forecasting Inflation in Sudan

This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests tha...

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Main Author: Moriyama, Kenji
Other Authors: Naseer, Abdul
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2009, 2009
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
Summary:This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained
Physical Description:25 p.
ISBN:9781451872798
1451872798