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Forecasting Inflation in Sudan

This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests tha...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Moriyama, Kenji
Other Authors: Naseer, Abdul
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2009
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Business Cycles
Inflation
Cyclical Indicators
Monetary Economics
Economic Forecasting
Deflation
Monetary Policy, Central Banking, And The Supply Of Money And Credit: General
Agricultural Prices
Forecasting
Money Supply
Price Level
Monetary Base
Forecasting And Other Model Applications
Economic Growth
Prices
Macroeconomics
Prices, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles: General (includes Measurement And Data)
Agriculture: Aggregate Supply And Demand Analysis
Money And Monetary Policy
Sudan
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
Description
Summary:This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained
Physical Description:25 pages
ISBN:9781451872798

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