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220928 ||| eng |
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|a 9781616356392
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|a Carriere-Swallow, Yan
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| 245 |
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|a Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts
|c Yan Carriere-Swallow, José Marzluf
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2021
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| 300 |
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|a 22 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a United States
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| 653 |
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|a Economic & financial crises & disasters
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| 653 |
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|a Government and the Monetary System
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| 653 |
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|a Payment Systems
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| 653 |
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|a Economics
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| 653 |
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|a Credit
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| 653 |
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|a International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
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| 653 |
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|a International Finance Forecasting and Simulation
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| 653 |
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|a Regimes
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| 653 |
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|a Monetary economics
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| 653 |
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|a Fiscal multipliers
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| 653 |
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|a Economic Forecasting
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| 653 |
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|a Economics: General
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| 653 |
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|a Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General
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| 653 |
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|a Fiscal Policy
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| 653 |
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|a Production
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| 653 |
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|a Fiscal consolidation
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| 653 |
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|a Informal sector
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| 653 |
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|a Fiscal policy
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| 653 |
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|a Money
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| 653 |
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|a Forecasting
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| 653 |
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|a Economics of specific sectors
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics: Production
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| 653 |
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|a Standards
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| 653 |
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|a Currency crises
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| 653 |
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|a Forecasting and Other Model Applications
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| 653 |
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|a Monetary Systems
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Monetary policy
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| 653 |
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|a Credit booms
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| 653 |
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|a Economic theory
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| 653 |
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|a Money and Monetary Policy
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| 653 |
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|a Production growth
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| 700 |
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|a Marzluf, José
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| 041 |
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|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
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|a 10.5089/9781616356392.001
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| 856 |
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|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/275/001.2021.issue-275-en.xml?cid=506834-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater the expansion of the credit-to-GDP gap in the years preceding a program, the greater its over-optimism about growth over the next two years. This result is strongest among forecasts that were most optimistic, where errors are also increasing in the economy’s degree of liability dollarization. We find that the inefficient use of financial information applies to growth forecasts more broadly, including the IMF’s forecasts in the World Economic Outlook and those produced by professional forecasters compiled by Consensus Economics. We conclude that improved macrofinancial analysis represents a promising avenue for reducing over-optimism in growth forecasts
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