Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models
The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. The main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target as a...
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| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
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Washington, D.C.
International Monetary Fund
2000
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| Series: | IMF Working Papers
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| Collection: | International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa |
| Summary: | The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. The main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target as a regressor are relatively better; the Phillips curve model outperforms the small open economy model in out-of-sample forecasts; and although Box-Jenkins models outperform the two models for short-term out-of-sample forecasts, their superiority deteriorates in longer forecasts. Adding a Markov-switching process to the models does not explain much of the conditional variance of the forecast errors |
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| Physical Description: | 54 pages |
| ISBN: | 9781451857863 |