It is Only Natural: Europe’s Low Interest Rates

Estimates of the natural interest rate are often useful in the analysis of monetary and other macroeconomic policies. The topic gathered much attention following the great financial crisis and the Euro Area debt crisis due to the uncertainty regarding the timing of monetary policy normalization and...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Arena, Marco
Other Authors: Di Bella, Gabriel, Cuevas, Alfredo, Gracia, Borja
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2020
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a It is Only Natural: Europe’s Low Interest Rates  |c Marco Arena, Gabriel Di Bella, Alfredo Cuevas, Borja Gracia, Vina Nguyen, Alex Pienkowski 
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651 4 |a Russian Federation 
653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Financial crises 
653 |a Output gap 
653 |a Financial services 
653 |a Real interest rates 
653 |a Production 
653 |a Production; Economic theory 
653 |a Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Production 
653 |a Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Financial Risk Management 
653 |a Production and Operations Management 
653 |a Financial Crises 
653 |a Central bank policy rate 
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700 1 |a Cuevas, Alfredo 
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520 |a Estimates of the natural interest rate are often useful in the analysis of monetary and other macroeconomic policies. The topic gathered much attention following the great financial crisis and the Euro Area debt crisis due to the uncertainty regarding the timing of monetary policy normalization and the future path of interest rates. Using a sample of European countries (including several members of the Euro Area), this paper provides estimates of country-specific natural interest rates and some of their drivers between 2000 and 2019. In line with the literature, our findings suggest that natural interest rates declined during this period, and despite a rebound in the last few years of it, they have not recovered to their pre-crisis levels. The paper also discusses the implications of the decline in natural interest rates for monetary conditions and debt sustainability