How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?
This paper uses a dataset on private-sector risk aversion as well as expectations of long-run growth and debt to explain trends in implied forward rates on government bonds in the G-7 countries. The results show, consistent with the literature, that a one-percent rise in the long-run projected debt-...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C.
International Monetary Fund
2015
|
| Series: | IMF Working Papers
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Collection: | International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa |
| Summary: | This paper uses a dataset on private-sector risk aversion as well as expectations of long-run growth and debt to explain trends in implied forward rates on government bonds in the G-7 countries. The results show, consistent with the literature, that a one-percent rise in the long-run projected debt-to-GDP ratio causes an increase in bond yields of a relatively modest 1-to-6 basis points. Shocks to growth expectations and risk aversion have been comparatively more successful in explaining the behavior of long-term rates. The findings imply that growth policies rather than long-run projections of fiscal outcomes may be more important in helping influence long-term borrowing costs |
|---|---|
| Physical Description: | 27 pages |
| ISBN: | 9781484358603 |