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150128 ||| eng |
| 020 |
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|a 9781451846133
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Husain, Aasim
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| 245 |
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0 |
|a Forecasting Commodity Prices
|b Futures Versus Judgment
|c Aasim Husain, Chakriya Bowman
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2004
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| 300 |
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|a 28 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a United States
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| 653 |
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|a Energy
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| 653 |
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|a Finance
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| 653 |
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|a Oil
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| 653 |
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|a Investments: Energy
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| 653 |
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|a Other Primary Products
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| 653 |
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|a Agriculture: General
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| 653 |
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|a option pricing
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| 653 |
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|a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation
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| 653 |
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|a Investments: Commodities
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| 653 |
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|a Futures Pricing
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| 653 |
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|a Commodities
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| 653 |
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|a Energy: General
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Commercial products
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| 653 |
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|a Futures
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| 653 |
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|a Commodity Markets
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| 653 |
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|a Institutional Investors
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| 653 |
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|a Pension Funds
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| 653 |
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|a Investments: Futures
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| 653 |
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|a Farm produce
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| 653 |
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|a Financial institutions
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| 653 |
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|a Contingent Pricing
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| 653 |
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|a Environment
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Instruments
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| 653 |
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|a Natural Resources
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| 653 |
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|a Petroleum industry and trade
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| 653 |
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|a Derivative securities
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| 653 |
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|a Non-bank Financial Institutions
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| 653 |
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|a Economic Development: Agriculture
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| 653 |
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|a Prices
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| 653 |
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|a Commodity prices
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| 653 |
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|a Agricultural commodities
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| 653 |
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|a Investment & securities
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Bowman, Chakriya
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| 041 |
0 |
7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
0 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
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|a 10.5089/9781451846133.001
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| 856 |
4 |
0 |
|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2004/041/001.2004.issue-041-en.xml?cid=17205-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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| 082 |
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a This paper assesses the performance of three types of commodity price forecasts—those based on judgment, those relying exclusively on historical price data, and those incorporating prices implied by commodity futures. For most of the 15 commodities in the sample, spot and futures prices appear to be nonstationary and to form a cointegrating relation. Spot prices tend to move toward futures prices over the long run, and error-correction models exploiting this feature produce more accurate forecasts. The analysis indicates that on the basis of statistical- and directional-accuracy measures, futures-based models yield better forecasts than historical-data-based models or judgment, especially at longer horizons
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