Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices
This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consist...
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| Other Authors: | , |
| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
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Washington, D.C.
International Monetary Fund
1999
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| Series: | IMF Working Papers
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Collection: | International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa |
| Summary: | This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom |
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| Physical Description: | 25 pages |
| ISBN: | 9781451857290 |