Are Currency Crises Predictable?

This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchan...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Valdes, Rodrigo
Other Authors: Goldfajn, Ilan
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 1997
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Are Currency Crises Predictable?  |c Rodrigo Valdes, Ilan Goldfajn 
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653 |a Business cycles 
653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions 
653 |a Cyclical indicators 
653 |a Financial crises 
653 |a Currency; Foreign exchange 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Economic growth 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Real exchange rates 
653 |a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Exchange rates 
653 |a Financial Risk Management 
653 |a Foreign exchange 
653 |a Financial Crises 
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520 |a This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises