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Are Currency Crises Predictable?

This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchan...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Valdes, Rodrigo
Other Authors: Goldfajn, Ilan
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 1997
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Business Cycles
Economic & Financial Crises & Disasters
International Monetary Arrangements And Institutions
Cyclical Indicators
Financial Crises
Currency; Foreign Exchange
Foreign Exchange
Currency Crises
Economic Growth
Macroeconomics
Real Exchange Rates
Prices, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles: General (includes Measurement And Data)
Exchange Rates
Financial Risk Management
Thailand
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
Description
Summary:This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises
Physical Description:19 pages
ISBN:9781451857634

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