Today versus Tomorrow - The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income

This paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil balanc...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Thomas, Alun
Other Authors: Bayoumi, Tamim
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2009
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Oil
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Today versus Tomorrow - The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income  |c Alun Thomas, Tamim Bayoumi 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2009 
300 |a 17 pages 
651 4 |a Qatar 
653 |a Fiscal stance 
653 |a Wealth 
653 |a Income 
653 |a Current account 
653 |a Short-term Capital Movements 
653 |a Oil 
653 |a Investments: Energy 
653 |a Saving 
653 |a Current Account Adjustment 
653 |a Fiscal Policy 
653 |a Balance of payments 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a Fiscal policy 
653 |a Aggregate Factor Income Distribution 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a Petroleum industry and trade 
653 |a Energy: General 
653 |a Consumption; Economics 
653 |a Consumption 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Consumption 
653 |a Investment & securities 
700 1 |a Bayoumi, Tamim 
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520 |a This paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil balance coefficients sum to unity is accepted for all specifications that adjust the return on wealth for future population changes. For oil-exporting countries outside Africa, around half of the fluctuations in the private sector non-oil balance are driven by considerations of changes in permanent income (the return on oil wealth) rather than current income. By contrast, for the public sector and African countries permanent income has little or no effect