Currency and Banking Crises The Early Warnings of Distress

The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as we...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Kaminsky, Graciela
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 1999
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Depository Institutions 
653 |a Business cycles 
653 |a Banks 
653 |a Cyclical indicators 
653 |a Financial crises 
653 |a Banks and banking 
653 |a Micro Finance Institutions 
653 |a Currency 
653 |a Mortgages 
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653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Economic growth 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Banking crises 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Real exchange rates 
653 |a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Financial Risk Management 
653 |a Foreign exchange 
653 |a Financial Crises 
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520 |a The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample