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150128 ||| eng |
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|a 9781475505450
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|a Gumata, Nombulelo
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|a A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa
|c Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou, Nir Klein
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2012
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| 300 |
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|a 20 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a South Africa
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| 653 |
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|a Economic & financial crises & disasters
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| 653 |
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|a Business cycles
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| 653 |
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|a Revenue administration
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| 653 |
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|a Finance
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| 653 |
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|a International Trade Organizations
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| 653 |
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|a Cyclical indicators
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| 653 |
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|a Public finance & taxation
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| 653 |
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|a Financial crises
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| 653 |
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|a Financial sector policy and analysis
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| 653 |
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|a Financial conditions index
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| 653 |
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|a Trade Policy
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| 653 |
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|a Computer Programs: Other
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| 653 |
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|a Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology
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| 653 |
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|a General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation
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| 653 |
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|a Financial statistics
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| 653 |
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|a Cycles
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| 653 |
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|a Post-clearance customs audit
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| 653 |
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|a Economic growth
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Business Fluctuations
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| 653 |
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|a Economic and financial statistics
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| 653 |
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|a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
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| 653 |
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|a Statistics
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Risk Management
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| 653 |
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|a Econometrics & economic statistics
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| 653 |
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|a Public Finance
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Crises
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| 653 |
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|a Customs administration
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Klein, Nir
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| 700 |
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|a Ndou, Eliphas
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| 041 |
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|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
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|a 10.5089/9781475505450.001
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| 856 |
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|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2012/196/001.2012.issue-196-en.xml?cid=26140-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman filter), which identify an unobservable common factor from a group of external and domestic financial indicators. The alternative estimated FCIs, which share a similar trajectory over time, seem to have a powerful predictive information for the near-term GDP growth (up to four quarters), and they outperform the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) leading indicator as well as individual financial variables. Their recent dynamics suggest that following a strong recovery in late-2009 and 2010, reflecting in part domestic factors such as systematic reductions in the policy rate, the rebound in real economic activity, and a benign inflationary environment, the financial conditions have deteriorated in recent months, though not as sharply as in end-2008. Given their relatively high predictive power regarding GDP growth, a further deterioration may imply that economic activity is likely to slow in the period ahead
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