Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk

We extend the New Keynesian (NK) model to include endogenous risk. Lower interest rates not only shift consumption intertemporally but also conditional output risk via their impact on risk-taking, giving rise to a vulnerability channel of monetary policy. The model fits the conditional output gap di...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Adrian, Tobias
Other Authors: Duarte, Fernando, Liang, Nellie, Zabczyk, Pawel
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2020
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk  |c Tobias Adrian, Fernando Duarte, Nellie Liang, Pawel Zabczyk 
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300 |a 55 pages 
653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Financial crises 
653 |a Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation 
653 |a Informal sector; Economics 
653 |a Economic sectors 
653 |a Economics of specific sectors 
653 |a Cycles 
653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy 
653 |a International Economics 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Business Fluctuations 
653 |a Business and Economics 
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700 1 |a Liang, Nellie 
700 1 |a Zabczyk, Pawel 
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520 |a We extend the New Keynesian (NK) model to include endogenous risk. Lower interest rates not only shift consumption intertemporally but also conditional output risk via their impact on risk-taking, giving rise to a vulnerability channel of monetary policy. The model fits the conditional output gap distribution and can account for medium-term increases in downside risks when financial conditions are loose. The policy prescriptions are very different from those in the standard NK model: monetary policy that focuses purely on inflation and output-gap stabilization can lead to instability. Macroprudential measures can mitigate the intertemporal risk-return tradeoff created by the vulnerability channel