Financial Stability in a Higher-for-Longer Interest Rate Environment The Case of the Middle East and North Africa

This paper assesses the state and resilience of corporate and banking sectors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment using granular micro data to conduct the first cross-country corporate and banking sector stress tests for the MENA region. The...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Alter, Adrian
Other Authors: Hlayhel, Bashar, Kroen, Thomas, Piontek, Thomas
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2024
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Credit 
653 |a Asset requirements 
653 |a Banks 
653 |a Capital adequacy requirements 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Financial crises 
653 |a Banks and banking 
653 |a Financial sector policy and analysis 
653 |a Mortgages 
653 |a Business enterprises 
653 |a Money 
653 |a Economics of specific sectors 
653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Capital and Ownership Structure 
653 |a Financial risk management 
653 |a Goodwill 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Financial Risk and Risk Management 
653 |a Financing Policy 
653 |a Depository Institutions 
653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Commercial banks 
653 |a Monetary economics 
653 |a Financial institutions 
653 |a Value of Firms 
653 |a General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation 
653 |a Economics: General 
653 |a Micro Finance Institutions 
653 |a Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General 
653 |a Ownership & organization of enterprises 
653 |a Corporate Finance and Governance: General 
653 |a Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation 
653 |a Informal sector; Economics 
653 |a Economic sectors 
653 |a Corporate Finance 
653 |a Corporate sector 
653 |a Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy 
653 |a Financial regulation and supervision 
653 |a Money and Monetary Policy 
653 |a Financial services law & regulation 
653 |a Finance: General 
653 |a Stress testing 
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700 1 |a Kroen, Thomas 
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520 |a This paper assesses the state and resilience of corporate and banking sectors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment using granular micro data to conduct the first cross-country corporate and banking sector stress tests for the MENA region. The results suggest that corporate sector debt at risk may increase sizably from 12 to 30 percent of total corporate debt. Banking systems would be broadly resilient in an adverse scenario featuring higher interest rates, corporate sector stress, and rising liquidity pressures with Tier-1 capital ratios declining by 2.3 percentage points in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and 4.0 percentage points in non-GCC MENA countries. In the cross-section of banks, there are pockets of vulnerabilities as banks with higher ex-ante vulnerabilities and state-owned banks suffer greater losses. While manageable, the capital losses in the adverse scenario could limit lending and adversely impact growth