Trade Spillovers of Domestic Subsidies

As governments resort to industrial policies to achieve economic and non-economic objectives, the number of subsidies implemented each year has more than tripled in the last decade. Using detailed data across a large number of advanced and emerging economies, we empirically investigate the effects o...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Rotunno, Lorenzo
Other Authors: Ruta, Michele
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2024
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Trade Spillovers of Domestic Subsidies  |c Lorenzo Rotunno, Michele Ruta 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2024 
300 |a 61 pages 
653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Externalities 
653 |a Balance of trade 
653 |a International Trade Organizations 
653 |a Export subsidies 
653 |a Trade Policy 
653 |a Economics: General 
653 |a Trade balance 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a Trade: General 
653 |a Informal sector; Economics 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a Economics of specific sectors 
653 |a Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies 
653 |a Export competitiveness 
653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Commercial policy 
653 |a International trade 
653 |a Exports 
653 |a Trade policy 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Empirical Studies of Trade 
653 |a Imports 
700 1 |a Ruta, Michele 
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520 |a As governments resort to industrial policies to achieve economic and non-economic objectives, the number of subsidies implemented each year has more than tripled in the last decade. Using detailed data across a large number of advanced and emerging economies, we empirically investigate the effects of domestic subsidies on international trade flows. Estimates from a difference-in-difference specification show that on average subsidies promote both exports and imports. These effects are partly driven by selection into subsidies, as governments target export-oriented and import-competing products. The results however mask significant differences across countries. Specifically, exports of subsidized products from G20 emerging markets increase 8 percent more than exports of other products, with no evidence of selection. The gravity estimates confirm that subsidies promote international relative to domestic trade. These spillover effects are concentrated in some industries, such as electrical machinery, and are stronger when subsidies are given through tax breaks than other policy instruments. The subsidy-led rise in trade calls for international cooperation to manage risks of retaliatory actions and possible drifts towards a subsidy war