Designing a Presumptive Income Tax Based on Turnover in Countries with Large Informal Sectors

Turnover (sales) is frequently used in developing countries as a presumptive income tax base, to economize on the costs of tax administration and taxpayer compliance. We construct a simple model where a size threshold separates firms paying turnover tax from those paying profit tax (regular income t...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Wei, Feng
Other Authors: Wen, Jean-François
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2023
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Revenue administration 
653 |a Economics 
653 |a Tax Evasion and Avoidance 
653 |a Shadow Economy 
653 |a Optimal Taxation 
653 |a Sales tax 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Taxes 
653 |a Formal and Informal Sectors 
653 |a Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Firm 
653 |a Economics: General 
653 |a Sales tax, tariffs & customs duties 
653 |a Informal sector 
653 |a Economics of specific sectors 
653 |a Institutional Arrangements 
653 |a Tax return filing compliance 
653 |a Compliance costs 
653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Business Taxes and Subsidies 
653 |a Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General 
653 |a Efficiency 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Tax administration and procedure 
653 |a Taxation 
653 |a Presumptive tax 
653 |a Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies 
653 |a Public Finance 
653 |a Spendings tax 
653 |a Revenue 
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520 |a Turnover (sales) is frequently used in developing countries as a presumptive income tax base, to economize on the costs of tax administration and taxpayer compliance. We construct a simple model where a size threshold separates firms paying turnover tax from those paying profit tax (regular income tax), and where firms have the option of producing in the untaxed, informal sector. The optimal turnover tax rate trades off two policy concerns: reducing informality and avoiding strategic reductions in sales by firms seeking to remain below the threshold for the profit tax. We provide analytical results and calibrate the model to compute the optimal policy using realistic parameter values. The optimal turnover tax rate for countries with large informal sectors is found to be around 2.5% across most scenarios, while the threshold separating the turnover tax regime from profit tax lies for the most part between $65,000 and $95,000. Introducing an optimally designed turnover tax reduces the rate of informality of businesses by about 12 percentage points in the calibrated model