Global Economic Impacts of Physical Climate Risks

This paper evaluates the global economic consequences of physical climate risks under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5) using firm-level evidence. Firstly, we estimate the historical sectoral productivity changes from chronic climate risks (gradual changes in temperature an...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Lepore, Caterina
Other Authors: Fernando, Roshen
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2023
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Global Economic Impacts of Physical Climate Risks  |c Caterina Lepore, Roshen Fernando 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2023 
300 |a 125 pages 
653 |a Economics 
653 |a Agribusiness 
653 |a Environmental Economics 
653 |a Natural Disasters 
653 |a Climate 
653 |a Production 
653 |a Industrial productivity 
653 |a Open Economy Macroeconomics 
653 |a Climate change 
653 |a Agriculture: General 
653 |a Quantitative Policy Modeling 
653 |a Agricultural industries 
653 |a Model Construction and Estimation 
653 |a Economics of specific sectors 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Production 
653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Global Warming 
653 |a Forecasting and Other Model Applications 
653 |a Agricultural sector 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Agricultural economics 
653 |a Climatic changes 
653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Natural Disasters and Their Management 
653 |a Productivity 
653 |a Environment 
653 |a Mathematical Methods and Programming: General 
653 |a History of Thought: Individuals: General 
653 |a Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis 
653 |a Economics: General 
653 |a Informal sector 
653 |a Economic sectors 
653 |a Natural disasters 
653 |a Valuation of Environmental Effects 
653 |a Production and Operations Management 
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520 |a This paper evaluates the global economic consequences of physical climate risks under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5) using firm-level evidence. Firstly, we estimate the historical sectoral productivity changes from chronic climate risks (gradual changes in temperature and precipitation) and extreme climate conditions (representative of heatwaves, coldwaves, droughts, and floods). Secondly, we produce forward-looking sectoral productivity changes for a global multisectoral sample of firms. For floods, these estimates account for the persistent productivity changes from the damage to firms’ physical capital. Thirdly, we assess the macroeconomic impact of these shocks within the global, multisectoral, intertemporal general equilibrium model: G-Cubed. The results indicate that, in the absence of additional adaptation relative to that already achieved by 2020, all the economies would experience substantial losses under the two climate scenarios and the losses would increase with global warming. The results can be useful for policymakers and practitioners interested in conducting climate risk analysis