Default Risk and Transition Dynamics with Carbon Shocks

Climate mitigation policies are being introduced around the world to limit global warming, generating new risks to the economy. This paper develops a continuous time heterogeneous agents model to study the impact of carbon pricing policy shocks on corporate default risk and the consequent transition...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Lamichhane, Sujan
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2023
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Default Risk and Transition Dynamics with Carbon Shocks  |c Sujan Lamichhane 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2023 
300 |a 51 pages 
653 |a Environmental Conservation and Protection 
653 |a Environmental Economics 
653 |a Environmental economics 
653 |a Climate 
653 |a Climate change 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a Intangible Capital 
653 |a International Lending and Debt Problems 
653 |a External debt 
653 |a Environmental Economics: Government Policy 
653 |a Economics of specific sectors 
653 |a Greenhouse gas emissions 
653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Global Warming 
653 |a Capital and Ownership Structure 
653 |a Goodwill 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Capacity 
653 |a Financial Risk and Risk Management 
653 |a Financing Policy 
653 |a Capital 
653 |a Greenhouse gases 
653 |a Manufacturing industries 
653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Industry Studies: Utilities and Transportation: Government Policy 
653 |a Investment 
653 |a Natural Disasters and Their Management 
653 |a Environment 
653 |a Value of Firms 
653 |a Economics: General 
653 |a Manufacturing 
653 |a Informal sector; Economics 
653 |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a Economic sectors 
653 |a Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General 
653 |a Debts, External 
653 |a Industries: Manufacturing 
653 |a Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy 
653 |a Emissions trading 
653 |a Debt default 
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520 |a Climate mitigation policies are being introduced around the world to limit global warming, generating new risks to the economy. This paper develops a continuous time heterogeneous agents model to study the impact of carbon pricing policy shocks on corporate default risk and the consequent transition dynamics. We derive a closed-form solution to corporate default probability based on firms' intertemporal optimization decisions and explicitly characterize the transition speed. This allows for studying policy implications in an analytically tractable way. The model is calibrated to different US corporate sectors to quantify the heterogeneous effects of carbon price shocks. While carbon-intensive sectors face increased default risks, there are notable asymmetric effects within sectors. Higher carbon prices increase default risk but also induce faster transition towards the new post-shock steady state with a highly non-linear impact. Our results suggest that once a range of possible price shocks are accounted for, the increase in the cost of capital/risk premiums might be sharply different across sectors