Optimal Fiscal Path Considerations Portugal

Despite achieving a rapid reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years, Portugal's debt ratio remains relatively high at 113.9 percent of GDP in end-2022. This paper employs an analytical model to determine the appropriate trajectory for structural consolidation to sustain ambitiou...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Shibata, Ippei
Other Authors: Tulin, Volodymyr
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2023
Series:Selected Issues Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a Portugal 
653 |a Fiscal stance 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Government debt management 
653 |a Financial services 
653 |a National Deficit Surplus 
653 |a Fiscal Policy 
653 |a Debts, Public 
653 |a International organization 
653 |a Cycles 
653 |a International institutions 
653 |a International Economics 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General 
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653 |a International Agreements and Observance 
653 |a International Organizations 
653 |a Monetary economics 
653 |a Real interest rates 
653 |a International agencies 
653 |a Debt Management 
653 |a Debt 
653 |a Fiscal consolidation 
653 |a Fiscal policy 
653 |a Sovereign Debt 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Monetary policy 
653 |a Business Fluctuations 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Monetary Policy 
653 |a Public Finance 
653 |a Money and Monetary Policy 
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520 |a Despite achieving a rapid reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years, Portugal's debt ratio remains relatively high at 113.9 percent of GDP in end-2022. This paper employs an analytical model to determine the appropriate trajectory for structural consolidation to sustain ambitious debt reduction over the medium term, taking into account the uncertainties in the economic landscape. The model points to a need for continued fiscal tightening between 2024 and 2028. Optimal consolidation would be higher under higher longterm interest rates, lower medium-term growth prospects, or increased market sensitivity to debt