Measuring Systemic Banking Resilience A Simple Reverse Stress Testing Approach

Reverse stress tests can be a useful tool to evaluate bank resilience to a credit shock, especially in environments where financial data are limited or opaque. This paper develops a simple and transparent country-level banking sector resilience indicator that focuses on tail risks, the Consolidated...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Feyen, Erik
Other Authors: Mare, Davide Salvatore
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C The World Bank 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: World Bank E-Library Archive - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
LEADER 02513nmm a2200313 u 4500
001 EB002178832
003 EBX01000000000000001316366
005 00000000000000.0
007 cr|||||||||||||||||||||
008 231006 ||| eng
100 1 |a Feyen, Erik 
245 0 0 |a Measuring Systemic Banking Resilience  |h Elektronische Ressource  |b A Simple Reverse Stress Testing Approach  |c Erik Feyen 
260 |a Washington, D.C  |b The World Bank  |c 2021 
300 |a 16 pages 
653 |a Bank Capital 
653 |a Financial Stability 
653 |a Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring 
653 |a Financial Regulation and Supervision 
653 |a Banking System 
653 |a Early Warning Systems 
653 |a Finance and Financial Sector Development 
653 |a Systemic Risk 
700 1 |a Mare, Davide Salvatore 
041 0 7 |a eng  |2 ISO 639-2 
989 |b WOBA  |a World Bank E-Library Archive 
028 5 0 |a 10.1596/1813-9450-9864 
856 4 0 |u http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/1813-9450-9864  |x Verlag  |3 Volltext 
082 0 |a 330 
520 |a Reverse stress tests can be a useful tool to evaluate bank resilience to a credit shock, especially in environments where financial data are limited or opaque. This paper develops a simple and transparent country-level banking sector resilience indicator that focuses on tail risks, the Consolidated Distance to Breakpoint. Based on individual bank reverse stress test results, this novel metric quantifies the increase in nonperforming loans needed to deplete capital buffers for a subset of the most fragile banks that collectively represent at least 20 percent of total banking system assets, a level commonly associated with a systemic banking crisis. The paper calculates the Consolidated Distance to Breakpoint using public data for more than 1,500 banks in 59 emerging market and developing economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper explores the value added of this metric in relation to widely used country-level macro-financial and soundness indicators. The results show that the association of the Consolidated Distance to Breakpoint with these macro-financial and financial soundness indicators is limited. This suggests that this new indicator encapsulates complementary information, possibly because aggregate measures may obscure challenges in individual banks. As such, the Consolidated Distance to Breakpoint metric could serve as a useful input to establish a basic understanding of a banking sector's resilience