Estimating the Impact of Weather on Agriculture

This paper quantifies the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in remote sensing weather data in the analysis of smallholder agricultural productivity. The analysis leverages 17 rounds of nationally-representative, panel household survey data from six countries in Sub-Sahara...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Michler, Jeffrey D.
Other Authors: Josephson, Anna, Murray, Siobhan, Kilic, Talip
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C The World Bank 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: World Bank E-Library Archive - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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100 1 |a Michler, Jeffrey D. 
245 0 0 |a Estimating the Impact of Weather on Agriculture  |h Elektronische Ressource  |c Jeffrey D. Michler 
260 |a Washington, D.C  |b The World Bank  |c 2021 
300 |a 151 pages 
653 |a Crops and Crop Management Systems 
653 |a Crop Yield 
653 |a Science and Technology Development 
653 |a Environment 
653 |a Climate and Meteorology 
653 |a Agricultural Sector Economics 
653 |a Precipitation 
653 |a Climate Change and Agriculture 
653 |a Remote Sensing 
653 |a Weather Impacts 
653 |a Climate Change Impacts 
653 |a Agricultural Productivity 
653 |a Agriculture 
653 |a Temperature 
700 1 |a Josephson, Anna 
700 1 |a Murray, Siobhan 
700 1 |a Kilic, Talip 
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028 5 0 |a 10.1596/1813-9450-9867 
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520 |a This paper quantifies the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in remote sensing weather data in the analysis of smallholder agricultural productivity. The analysis leverages 17 rounds of nationally-representative, panel household survey data from six countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. These data are spatially linked with a range of geospatial weather data sources and related metrics. The paper provides systematic evidence on measurement error introduced by (1) different methods used to obfuscate the exact GPS coordinates of households, (2) different metrics used to quantify precipitation and temperature, and (3) different remote sensing measurement technologies. First, the analysis finds no discernible effect of measurement error introduced by different obfuscation methods. Second, it finds that simple weather metrics, such as total seasonal rainfall and mean daily temperature, outperform more complex metrics, such as deviations in rainfall from the long-run average or growing degree days, in a broad range of settings. Finally, the analysis finds substantial amounts of measurement error based on remote sensing products. In extreme cases, the data drawn from different remote sensing products result in opposite signs for coefficients on weather metrics, meaning that precipitation or temperature drawn from one product purportedly increases crop output while the same metrics drawn from a different product purportedly reduces crop output. The paper concludes with a set of six best practices for researchers looking to combine remote sensing weather data with socioeconomic survey data