| Summary: | Interconnected and often devastating covariate shocks are a threat to human development. Covariate shocks are shocks that affect large numbers of people or communities at once and can be natural, economic, or political. Occurrence and the human devastation from natural disasters has increased over the last 50 years, and the negative impacts of climate change are expected to exacerbate this trend. Poor households are particularly vulnerable to covariate shocks because they lack adequate capacity to prepare for, cope with, and adapt to shocks. Covariate shocks can also impoverish vulnerable households when their capacity to prepare, cope, and adapt is overwhelmed. Covariate shocks vary in magnitude, speed of onset, predictability, and duration, and thus these aspects should be considered when designing the most appropriate social protection response. Moreover, the needs and challenges that vulnerable and directly affected populations face will have implications for social protection systems. Adaptive social protection (ASP) builds resilience by helping poor and vulnerable households prepare for, cope with, and adapt to covariate shocks. The purpose of this evaluation is twofold: (i) assess whether the World Bank support for social protection has incorporated adaptive elements over time, and (ii) assess how effective the World Bank has been at helping client countries make their social protection systems more adaptive
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