Sub-Saharan Africa’s Risk Perception Premium: In the Search of Missing Factors

Policymakers from the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region often flag a mispricing of their sovereign debt presumably originating from a perception risk by international investors that lead to "unjustifiably" high borrowing costs. Against this background, this paper explores the extent to which...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Gbohoui, William
Other Authors: Modeste Some, Yirbehogre, Ouedraogo, Rasmané
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2023
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
LEADER 03871nmm a2200721 u 4500
001 EB002176305
003 EBX01000000000000001314082
005 00000000000000.0
007 cr|||||||||||||||||||||
008 231004 ||| eng
020 |a 9798400242144 
100 1 |a Gbohoui, William 
245 0 0 |a Sub-Saharan Africa’s Risk Perception Premium: In the Search of Missing Factors  |c William Gbohoui, Rasmané Ouedraogo, Yirbehogre Modeste Some 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2023 
300 |a 36 pages 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Sovereign bonds 
653 |a Economics 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Return on investment 
653 |a Financial crises 
653 |a Financial services 
653 |a Intangible Capital 
653 |a Yield curve 
653 |a National accounts 
653 |a Economics of specific sectors 
653 |a International Financial Markets 
653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Bonds 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Brokerage 
653 |a Capacity 
653 |a Venture Capital 
653 |a Financial Risk Management 
653 |a Capital 
653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Investment 
653 |a Investment Banking 
653 |a Financial institutions 
653 |a Debt Management 
653 |a Economics: General 
653 |a Debt 
653 |a Informal sector 
653 |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Investments: Bonds 
653 |a Sovereign Debt 
653 |a International Finance: General 
653 |a Saving and investment 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Ratings and Ratings Agencies 
653 |a Investments: General 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Investment & securities 
653 |a Financial Crises 
700 1 |a Modeste Some, Yirbehogre 
700 1 |a Ouedraogo, Rasmané 
041 0 7 |a eng  |2 ISO 639-2 
989 |b IMF  |a International Monetary Fund 
490 0 |a IMF Working Papers 
028 5 0 |a 10.5089/9798400242144.001 
856 4 0 |u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2023/130/001.2023.issue-130-en.xml?cid=534885-com-dsp-marc  |x Verlag  |3 Volltext 
082 0 |a 330 
520 |a Policymakers from the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region often flag a mispricing of their sovereign debt presumably originating from a perception risk by international investors that lead to "unjustifiably" high borrowing costs. Against this background, this paper explores the extent to which a potential SSA premium exists in the financial markets following a broader two-fold approach. Firstly, using a sample of 1592 international primary sovereign fixed coupon bonds issued between 2003-2021 from Bond Radar by 89 countries, we find that SSA countries pay significantly higher coupon at issuance compared to their peers from other regions. Secondly, we assess whether there is any bias against SSA countries in the secondary market that would result in higher refinancing cost. Based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly data covering 107 countries over 1990 – 2022, we find that SSA countries pay higher refinancing costs in the secondary market. The paper further explores whether there are other factors overlooked by the literature that matter for the risk pricing by international investors. In that respect, we explore the sensitivity of spreads to some structural dimensions where SSA countries face acute challenges―the transparency of budget process, the importance of the informal sector, the level of financial development, and the quality of public institutions. The results show that the excess premium estimated for SSA countries vanishes when these structural factors are accounted for in the regressions