Fiscal Crises: The Role of the Public Debt Investor Base and Domestic Financial Markets as Aggravating and Mitigating Factors

The paper evaluates the key drivers of fiscal crises in a sample of countries from all three income groups—advanced, emerging, and low-income countries, using fiscal crisis data recently developed by the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. The empirical study focuses on three questions: (1) How does th...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Bhattacharya, Rina
Other Authors: Johnson, Kubi, Nkusu, Mwanza, Wang, Mengxue
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2022
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Fiscal Crises: The Role of the Public Debt Investor Base and Domestic Financial Markets as Aggravating and Mitigating Factors  |c Rina Bhattacharya, Kubi Johnson, Mwanza Nkusu, Mengxue Wang 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2022 
300 |a 42 pages 
653 |a Economics 
653 |a Public debt 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Financial crises 
653 |a Industries: Financial Services 
653 |a Capital markets 
653 |a Debts, Public 
653 |a International Lending and Debt Problems 
653 |a Economics of specific sectors 
653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Financial markets 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General 
653 |a Financial sector development 
653 |a Financial Risk Management 
653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Institutional Investors 
653 |a Pension Funds 
653 |a Financial institutions 
653 |a Financial Instruments 
653 |a Debt Management 
653 |a Economics: General 
653 |a Capital market 
653 |a Financial Aspects of Economic Integration 
653 |a Debt 
653 |a Long-term Capital Movements 
653 |a Informal sector 
653 |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Sovereign Debt 
653 |a Non-bank Financial Institutions 
653 |a International Finance: General 
653 |a Nonbank financial institutions 
653 |a Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy 
653 |a Financial services industry 
653 |a International Factor Movements and International Business: General 
653 |a Public Finance 
653 |a Finance: General 
653 |a International Investment 
653 |a Financial Crises 
700 1 |a Johnson, Kubi 
700 1 |a Nkusu, Mwanza 
700 1 |a Wang, Mengxue 
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520 |a The paper evaluates the key drivers of fiscal crises in a sample of countries from all three income groups—advanced, emerging, and low-income countries, using fiscal crisis data recently developed by the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. The empirical study focuses on three questions: (1) How does the composition of debtholders (domestic vs. foreign, resident vs. non-resident, or official vs. non-official) affect the probability of a fiscal crisis, after controlling for the level of public debt and other relevant variables?; (2) How does the development and size of the domestic financial sector affect the probability of a fiscal crisis?; and (3) How do changes in the debt level affect the probability of a fiscal crisis, for given compositions of the sovereign debt investor base and different levels of development and size of domestic financial markets? Our findings confirm the benefits of financial development, the danger of heavy reliance on a non-resident investor base, and also that emerging market economies have a lower debt carrying capacity compared to the full sample