Don't Look Up: House Prices in Emerging Europe

This paper investigates how housing prices respond to economic, financial and demographic conditions in emerging markets in Europe. We use quarterly data covering 10 countries over the period 1998–2022 and implement a panel quantile regression approach to obtain a granular analysis of real estate ma...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Cevik, Serhan
Other Authors: Naik, Sadhna
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2022
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Don't Look Up: House Prices in Emerging Europe  |c Serhan Cevik, Sadhna Naik 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2022 
300 |a 23 pages 
651 4 |a China, People's Republic of 
653 |a Economic & financial crises & disasters 
653 |a Depository Institutions 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Income 
653 |a Real Estate 
653 |a Banks 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Financial services 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand 
653 |a Housing Supply and Markets 
653 |a Economics: General 
653 |a Short term interest rates 
653 |a Micro Finance Institutions 
653 |a Informal sector; Economics 
653 |a Aggregate Factor Income Distribution 
653 |a Housing; Prices 
653 |a Mortgages 
653 |a National accounts 
653 |a Economics of specific sectors 
653 |a Property & real estate 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Currency crises 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Long term interest rates 
653 |a Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies 
653 |a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Other 
653 |a Housing prices 
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520 |a This paper investigates how housing prices respond to economic, financial and demographic conditions in emerging markets in Europe. We use quarterly data covering 10 countries over the period 1998–2022 and implement a panel quantile regression approach to obtain a granular analysis of real estate markets. Overall, economic, financial and demographic factors explain the changes in real house prices in emerging Europe, with income growth having the most significant impact. Quantile regression estimations show that income growth matters more for higher housing prices than those at the lower quantiles of the property market. We also find that an increase in short-term or long-term interest rates have a price-dampening impact, indicating that a higher cost of borrowing is associated with lower real house prices. These results indicate that the downturn in house prices could deepen with the looming economic recession and soaring interest rates