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221201  eng 
020 


a 9783031163333

100 
1 

a van Oijen, Marcel

245 
0 
0 
a Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory
h Elektronische Ressource
c by Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer

250 


a 1st ed. 2022

260 


a Cham
b Springer International Publishing
c 2022, 2022

300 


a XIII, 114 p. 1 illus
b online resource

653 


a Statistical Theory and Methods

653 


a Statistics

653 


a Bayesian Inference

653 


a Biostatistics

653 


a Biometry

700 
1 

a Brewer, Mark
e [author]

041 
0 
7 
a eng
2 ISO 6392

989 


b Springer
a Springer eBooks 2005

490 
0 

a SpringerBriefs in Statistics

028 
5 
0 
a 10.1007/9783031163333

856 
4 
0 
u https://doi.org/10.1007/9783031163333?nosfx=y
x Verlag
3 Volltext

082 
0 

a 519.5

520 


a The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader
