Do More Unequal Countries Redistribute More? Does the Median Voter Hypothesis Hold?
December 1999 - The data strongly support the hypothesis that countries with more unequal distribution of factor income redistribute more in favor of the poor - even when the analysis controls for older people's share in total population (that is, for pension transfers). But the evidence on the...
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| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
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Washington, D.C
The World Bank
1999
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| Collection: | World Bank E-Library Archive - Collection details see MPG.ReNa |
| Summary: | December 1999 - The data strongly support the hypothesis that countries with more unequal distribution of factor income redistribute more in favor of the poor - even when the analysis controls for older people's share in total population (that is, for pension transfers). But the evidence on the median voter hypothesis is inconclusive even if middle-income groups gain more (or lose less) through redistribution in countries where initial (factor) income distribution is more unequal. The median voter hypothesis is important to endogenous growth theories because it provides the political mechanism through which voters in more unequal countries redistribute a greater proportion of income and thus (it is argued), by blunting incentives, reduce the country's growth rate. But the hypothesis was never properly tested because of lack of data on the distribution of (pre-tax and transfer) factor income across households, and hence on the exact amount of gain by the poorest quintile or poorest half. Milanovic tests the hypothesis using 79 observations drawn from household budget surveys from 24 democracies. The data strongly support the hypothesis that countries with more unequal distribution of factor income redistribute more in favor of the poor - even when the analysis controls for the older people's share in total population (that is, for pension transfers). The evidence on the median voter hypothesis is much weaker. Milanovic does find that middle-income groups gain more (or lose less) through redistribution in countries where initial (factor) income distribution is more unequal. This regularity evaporates, however, when pensions are dropped from social transfers and the focus is strictly on the more redistributive social transfers. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the relationship between democracy and inequality. The study was funded in part by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Democracy, Redistribution, and Inequality (RPO 683-01). Also published as “The median voter hypothesis, income inequality and income redistribution: An empirical test with the required data”, European Journal of Political Economy , vol. 16, No. 3, September 2000, pp. 367-410. The author may be contacted at bmilanovic@worldbank.org |
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| Physical Description: | 56 p. |