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220928 ||| eng |
| 020 |
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|a 9781513587172
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Celasun, Oya
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| 245 |
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|a An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17
|c Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic, Allan Timmermann
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2021
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| 300 |
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|a 47 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a China, People's Republic of
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| 653 |
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|a Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics: General
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| 653 |
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|a Terms of trade
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| 653 |
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|a Finance
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| 653 |
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|a Financial crises
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| 653 |
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|a Economic policy; nternational cooperation
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| 653 |
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|a Economic Forecasting
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| 653 |
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|a Production
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| 653 |
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|a Exports and Imports
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| 653 |
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|a Production; Economic theory
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| 653 |
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|a National accounts
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| 653 |
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|a National income
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| 653 |
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|a Economics of specific sectors
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| 653 |
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|a Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics: Production
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| 653 |
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|a GDP forecasting
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| 653 |
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|a Currency crises
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| 653 |
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|a Financial markets
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| 653 |
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|a Global financial crisis of 2008-2009
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| 653 |
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|a International trade
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| 653 |
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|a Emerging and frontier financial markets
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| 653 |
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|a Hypothesis Testing
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| 653 |
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|a Forecasting and Other Model Applications
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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| 653 |
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|a Economic & financial crises & disasters
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| 653 |
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|a Output gap
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| 653 |
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|a Economics: General
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| 653 |
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|a Informal sector; Economics
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| 653 |
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|a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)
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| 653 |
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|a International economics
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| 653 |
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|a Financial services industry
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| 653 |
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|a Empirical Studies of Trade
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| 653 |
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|a Finance: General
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| 653 |
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|a Production and Operations Management
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Crises
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Lee, Jungjin
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Mrkaic, Mico
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Timmermann, Allan
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| 041 |
0 |
7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
0 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
5 |
0 |
|a 10.5089/9781513587172.001
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| 856 |
4 |
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|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/216/001.2021.issue-216-en.xml?cid=462892-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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| 082 |
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naïve forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors—such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners—can improve the accuracy of some economies’ growth forecasts
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