Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data

World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (lockdowns) to halt the spread of the disease. At the same time, demand declined as hous...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Cerdeiro, Diego
Other Authors: Komaromi, Andras
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2020
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Health 
653 |a Payment Systems 
653 |a Infectious & contagious diseases 
653 |a Financial sector policy and analysis 
653 |a Regimes 
653 |a Trade Policy 
653 |a Transportation Systems: General 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a Health and Fitness 
653 |a Money 
653 |a Standards 
653 |a International trade 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Diseases: Contagious 
653 |a Communicable diseases 
653 |a Imports 
653 |a International finance 
653 |a COVID-19 
653 |a Externalities 
653 |a Government and the Monetary System 
653 |a International Trade Organizations 
653 |a Monetary economics 
653 |a Regulation 
653 |a Trade: General 
653 |a Plurilateral trade 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a Health Behavior 
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653 |a Monetary Systems 
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653 |a Business and Economics 
653 |a Foreign exchange market 
653 |a Empirical Studies of Trade 
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520 |a World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (lockdowns) to halt the spread of the disease. At the same time, demand declined as households and firms scaled back spending. This paper attempts to disentangle the supply and demand channels in trade by quantifying the causal effect of supply spillovers from lockdowns. We utilize a novel dataset of daily bilateral seaborne trade, and design a shift-share identification strategy that leverages geography-induced cargo delivery lags to track the transmission of supply disruptions across space. We find strong but short-lived supply spillovers of lockdowns through international trade. Moreover, the evidence is suggestive of the downstream propagation of countries’ lockdowns through global supply chains