Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History

The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the likely evolution of nonfinancial corporate performance going forward, this paper investigates empirically the impact of past pandemics using firm-level data on more than 537,000 companies from...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Cevik, Serhan
Other Authors: Miryugin, Fedor
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2020
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Infectious & contagious diseases 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies 
653 |a Covid-19 
653 |a Intangible Capital 
653 |a Health and Fitness 
653 |a International Lending and Debt Problems 
653 |a Population and demographics 
653 |a Emerging and frontier financial markets 
653 |a Demography 
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653 |a Communicable diseases 
653 |a Population & demography 
653 |a Investment 
653 |a Capital Budgeting 
653 |a Demographic Economics: General 
653 |a Value of Firms 
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520 |a The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the likely evolution of nonfinancial corporate performance going forward, this paper investigates empirically the impact of past pandemics using firm-level data on more than 537,000 companies from 14 developing countries during the period 1998–2018. The analysis indicates that the prevalence of infectious diseases has an economically and statistically significant negative effect on nonfinancial corporate performance. This adverse impact is particularly pronounced on smaller and younger firms, compared to larger and more established corporations. We also find that a higher number of infectious-disease cases in population increases the probability of failure among nonfinancial firms, particularly for small and young firms. In the case of COVID-19, the magnitude of these effects will be much greater, given the unprecedented scale of the outbreak and strict policy responses to contain its spread