Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability

This paper explores the determinants of profitability across large euro area banks using a novel approach based on conditional profitability distributions. Real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are shown to be the most reliable determinants of bank profitability. However, the estimated conditional distr...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Elekdag, Selim
Other Authors: Malik, Sheheryar, Mitra, Srobona
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2019
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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300 |a 38 pages 
651 4 |a France 
653 |a Depository Institutions 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a State supervision 
653 |a Income 
653 |a Banks 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Loan loss provisions 
653 |a Industries: Financial Services 
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653 |a Micro Finance Institutions 
653 |a Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation 
653 |a Mortgages 
653 |a Nonperforming loans 
653 |a Yield curve 
653 |a Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions 
653 |a National accounts 
653 |a Loans 
653 |a Bank soundness 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Financial regulation and supervision 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
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520 |a This paper explores the determinants of profitability across large euro area banks using a novel approach based on conditional profitability distributions. Real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are shown to be the most reliable determinants of bank profitability. However, the estimated conditional distributions reveal that, while higher growth would raise profits on average, a large swath of banks would most likely continue to struggle even amid a strong economic recovery. Therefore, for some banks, a determined reduction in NPLs combined with cost efficiency improvements and customized changes to their business models appears to be the most promising strategy for durably raising profitability