Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States

Government debt in many small states has risen beyond sustainable levels and some governments are considering fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates fiscal policy multipliers for small states using two distinct models: an empirical forecast error model with data from 23 small states across the w...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Alichi, Ali
Other Authors: Shibata, Ippei, Tanyeri, Kadir
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2019
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a United States 
653 |a National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures 
653 |a Wealth 
653 |a Public debt 
653 |a Public investment spending 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Saving 
653 |a Fiscal multipliers 
653 |a Government consumption 
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653 |a Debts, Public 
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653 |a National accounts 
653 |a National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General 
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653 |a Consumption; Economics 
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653 |a Current spending 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Consumption 
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520 |a Government debt in many small states has risen beyond sustainable levels and some governments are considering fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates fiscal policy multipliers for small states using two distinct models: an empirical forecast error model with data from 23 small states across the world; and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated to a hypothetical small state’s economy. The results suggest that fiscal policy using government current primary spending is ineffective, but using government investment is very potent in small states in affecting the level of their GDP over the medium term. These results are robust to different model specifications and characteristics of small states. Inability to affect GDP using current primary spending could be frustrating for policymakers when an expansionary policy is needed, but encouraging at the current juncture when many governments are considering fiscal consolidation. For the short term, however, multipliers for government current primary spending are larger and affected by imports as share of GDP, level of government debt, and position of the economy in the business cycle, among other factors