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200301 ||| eng |
| 020 |
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|a 9781484375969
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| 245 |
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|a Portugal
|b Selected Issues
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2018
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| 300 |
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|a 93 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a Portugal
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| 653 |
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|a National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures
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| 653 |
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|a Investment
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| 653 |
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|a Public investment spending
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| 653 |
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|a Finance
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| 653 |
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|a Current account
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| 653 |
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|a Short-term Capital Movements
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| 653 |
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|a Public finance & taxation
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| 653 |
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|a Financial sector policy and analysis
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| 653 |
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|a Currency; Foreign exchange
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| 653 |
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|a Bankruptcy
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| 653 |
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|a Current Account Adjustment
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| 653 |
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|a Balance of payments
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| 653 |
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|a Real effective exchange rates
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| 653 |
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|a Debt
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| 653 |
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|a Exports and Imports
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| 653 |
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|a Other Public Investment and Capital Stock
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| 653 |
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|a Intangible Capital
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| 653 |
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|a International economics
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| 653 |
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|a Expenditure
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| 653 |
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|a Foreign Exchange
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| 653 |
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|a Solvency
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| 653 |
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|a Public-private sector cooperation
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| 653 |
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|a Liquidation
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Public investments
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| 653 |
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|a Capacity
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| 653 |
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|a Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP)
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| 653 |
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|a Capital
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| 653 |
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|a Public Finance
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| 653 |
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|a Finance: General
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| 653 |
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|a Foreign exchange
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| 653 |
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|a Production and Operations Management
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| 710 |
2 |
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|a International Monetary Fund
|b European Dept
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| 041 |
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|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
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|a IMF Staff Country Reports
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| 028 |
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|a 10.5089/9781484375969.002
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| 856 |
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|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/002/2018/274/002.2018.issue-274-en.xml?cid=46225-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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| 082 |
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a This Selected Issues paper describes financial conditions and growth at risk in Portugal. The macro-finance literature and recent experience provide compelling evidence that financial imbalances grow in good times, creating downside risks to economic growth. The analysis highlights the importance of the price of risk, leverage and credit growth as leading indicators of risks to gross domestic product growth. The price of risk appears to provide the most powerful signal in the short term, while credit aggregates are the most significant predictor in the medium term. This finding is consistent with the volatility paradox and is line with other empirical studies. The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) model suggests contained downside risks to Portugal’s growth projections at the current juncture based on financial conditions data, but credit growth should continue to be monitored given still high leverage. The moderate risk to growth identified by the GaR model reflects the impact of low credit spreads and volatility in the financial markets, in their turn reflecting the prevailing policy mix. Still, a repricing of risks and other shocks could be magnified by the still-high leverage, and lead to less favorable growth outcomes
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