A computational model of public support for insurgency and terrorism : a prototype for more-general social-science modeling

This report builds on earlier RAND research (e.g., Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism, 2012) that reviewed and integrated social science relevant to terrorism and insurgency. That research used qualitative conceptual causal models called “factor trees” to ident...

Full description

Main Author: Davis, Paul K.
Corporate Authors: United States Department of Defense, Acquisition and Technology Policy Center, Rand Corporation
Other Authors: O'Mahony, Angela
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Santa Monica, CA RAND 2013, 2013
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: JSTOR Open Access Books - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
Summary:This report builds on earlier RAND research (e.g., Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism, 2012) that reviewed and integrated social science relevant to terrorism and insurgency. That research used qualitative conceptual causal models called “factor trees” to identify the factors that contribute to various aspects of terrorism or insurgency at a slice in time and how the factors relate to each other qualitatively. This report goes beyond the conceptual and qualitative by specifying a prototype uncertainty-sensitive computational model for one of the factor trees from the earlier research, one that describes public support for terrorism and insurgency. The authors first detail their approach to designing such a model, emphasizing the challenges they encountered in assigning mathematical meaning to the factor tree's numerous factors and subfactors, identifying suitable “building block” combining algorithms, and the uncertainty in their values and the relationships among them. They then describe how they implemented the model in a high-level visual-programming environment, show how the model can be used for exploratory analysis under uncertainty, and discuss their initial experience with it. Methodologically, the work illustrates a new approach to causal, uncertainty-and-context-sensitive, social-science modeling. It also illustrates how such models can be reviewable, reusable, and potentially composable
Item Description:"RAND National Defense Research Institute.". - "This research was conducted within the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute"--Preface
Physical Description:xxi, 88 pages color illustrations
ISBN:0833079190
9780833079190