Predicting suicide attacks integrating spatial, temporal, and social features of terrorist attack targets

As part of an exploration of ways to predict what determines the targets of suicide attacks, RAND conducted a proof-of-principle analysis of whether adding sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors would enhance the predictive ability of a methodology that focused on geospatial fea...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Perry, Walt L.
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Santa Monica, CA RAND [2013], 2013
Series:Rand Corporation monograph series
Online Access:
Collection: JSTOR Open Access Books - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Predicting suicide attacks  |h Elektronische Ressource  |b integrating spatial, temporal, and social features of terrorist attack targets  |c Walter L. Perry, Claude Berrebi, Ryan Andrew Brown, John Hollywood, Amber Jaycocks, Parisa Roshan, 
260 |a Santa Monica, CA  |b RAND  |c [2013], 2013 
300 |a 1 online resource 
505 0 |a Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; CHAPTER ONE: Introduction and Overview; Background; About This Report; CHAPTER TWO: Quantitative Data and Methods; Quantitative Data; Socioeconomic Characteristics; Demographic Characteristics; Electoral Data; Proximity to Terrorist Safe Houses; Sociocultural Precipitants; Principal Component Analysis and Logistic Regression; Logistic Regression; Dimension Reduction; Classification and Regression Trees; Sociocultural Precipitants Analysis; Results of Quantitative Data Analysis 
505 0 |a Conclusions from Quantitative Data Analysis Conclusions from Qualitative Data Analysis; Recommendations for Further Research; Regression Analyses and Classification; Sociocultural Precipitants; Transferability; Appendixes; A. Sociocultural Precipitant Database; B. Logistic Regression Output; About the Authors; Bibliography 
505 0 |a Principal Components Analysis Logistic Regression Models; Classification and Regression Trees; Sociocultural Precipitants; Summing Up; CHAPTER THREE: Qualitative Analysis; Methodology; Hypotheses Driving the Use of the Methodology; Assumptions in Using the Methodology; Restrictions; Timing; Results of Qualitative Data Analysis; Identification of Codes; Distribution of Codes; Retargeting of Previously Attacked Locations; Dispersion of Attacks over Time; Assessment of Transportation Targets; Comparison of Codes to a Subject-Matter Expert Hypothesis; CHAPTER FOUR: Conclusions and Recommendations 
505 0 |a Includes bibliographical references 
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520 |a As part of an exploration of ways to predict what determines the targets of suicide attacks, RAND conducted a proof-of-principle analysis of whether adding sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors would enhance the predictive ability of a methodology that focused on geospatial features. This test case focused on terrorist bombing incidents in Israel, but the findings indicate that the methodology merits further exploration