A Post Mortem on OECD Short-term Projections from 1982 to 1987
This paper reviews the accuracy of OECD projections over the 1982-1987 period. It is shown that, although the evolution of the economic climate was correctly projected, projection errors for economic activity and inflation varied significantly both through the period under consideration and between...
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| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
1989
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| Series: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
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| Collection: | OECD Books and Papers - Collection details see MPG.ReNa |
| Summary: | This paper reviews the accuracy of OECD projections over the 1982-1987 period. It is shown that, although the evolution of the economic climate was correctly projected, projection errors for economic activity and inflation varied significantly both through the period under consideration and between countries. But the average absolute error in GNP over the entire 1982/87 period was less than 1 percentage point. The biggest errors were made in the first half of the period and were more important for the smaller countries. An attempt is made to assess the likely impact of differences between assumed and realised economic policies, energy prices and exchange rates on the size and direction of the projection errors .. |
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| Physical Description: | 84 p. 21 x 29.7cm |