Coincident and Leading Indicators of Manufacturing Industry

The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research regularly conducts business tendency surveys (BTS) amongst manufacturing firms. The information thus generated is available with a publication lead to the official Swiss sales, production, order and inventory statistics. It is shown that the survey dat...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Etter, Richard
Other Authors: Graff, Michael
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Paris OECD Publishing 2004
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: OECD Books and Papers - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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520 |a The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research regularly conducts business tendency surveys (BTS) amongst manufacturing firms. The information thus generated is available with a publication lead to the official Swiss sales, production, order and inventory statistics. It is shown that the survey data can be used to generate reasonably precise estimates of the reference series with leads of at least one quarter. Specifically, cross-correlations of quarterly series are computed to screen the data for pairs of highly correlated business tendency survey series and corresponding official statistics. All pairs are identified where the maximum correlation shows up simultaneously or with a lead of the survey based series and exceeds a given threshold..