Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses

We present a novel approach that incorporates individual entity stress testing and losses from systemic risk effects (SE losses) into macroprudential stress testing. SE losses are measured using a reduced-form model to value financial entity assets, conditional on macroeconomic stress and the distre...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Alla, Zineddine
Other Authors: Espinoza, Raphael, Li, Qiaoluan, Segoviano, Miguel
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2018
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses  |c Zineddine Alla, Raphael Espinoza, Qiaoluan Li, Miguel Segoviano 
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300 |a 45 pages 
651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Depository Institutions 
653 |a Asset requirements 
653 |a Financial contagion 
653 |a Banks 
653 |a Asset valuation 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Banks and banking 
653 |a Financial sector policy and analysis 
653 |a General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation 
653 |a Micro Finance Institutions 
653 |a Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation 
653 |a Asset and liability management 
653 |a Mortgages 
653 |a International Financial Markets 
653 |a Systemic risk 
653 |a Financial risk management 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Asset-liability management 
653 |a Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy 
653 |a Financial regulation and supervision 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Financial Risk Management 
653 |a Financial services law & regulation 
653 |a Finance: General 
653 |a Countercyclical capital buffers 
653 |a Stress testing 
653 |a Financial Crises 
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700 1 |a Li, Qiaoluan 
700 1 |a Segoviano, Miguel 
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520 |a We present a novel approach that incorporates individual entity stress testing and losses from systemic risk effects (SE losses) into macroprudential stress testing. SE losses are measured using a reduced-form model to value financial entity assets, conditional on macroeconomic stress and the distress of other entities in the system. This valuation is made possible by a multivariate density which characterizes the asset values of the financial entities making up the system. In this paper this density is estimated using CIMDO, a statistical approach, which infers densities that are consistent with entities’ probabilities of default, which in this case are estimated using market-based data. Hence, SE losses capture the effects of interconnectedness structures that are consistent with markets’ perceptions of risk. We then show how SE losses can be decomposed into the likelihood of distress and the magnitude of losses, thereby quantifying the contribution of specific entities to systemic contagion. To illustrate the approach, we quantify SE losses due to Lehman Brothers’ default