Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models

Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. W...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine
Other Authors: Ben Naceur, Sami, Kanaan, Oussama, Rault, Christophe
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2018
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Oil
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models  |c Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, Sami Ben Naceur, Oussama Kanaan, Christophe Rault 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2018 
300 |a 35 pages 
651 4 |a Kuwait 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Energy: Demand and Supply 
653 |a Institutional Investors 
653 |a Stock exchanges 
653 |a Oil prices 
653 |a Stocks 
653 |a Pension Funds 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Oil 
653 |a Investments: Energy 
653 |a Financial institutions 
653 |a Financial Instruments 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Petroleum industry and trade 
653 |a Asset prices 
653 |a Commodities 
653 |a Non-bank Financial Institutions 
653 |a Energy: General 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Financial markets 
653 |a Stock markets 
653 |a Investments: Stocks 
653 |a Energy and the Macroeconomy 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Investment & securities 
653 |a Finance: General 
700 1 |a Ben Naceur, Sami 
700 1 |a Kanaan, Oussama 
700 1 |a Rault, Christophe 
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490 0 |a IMF Working Papers 
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520 |a Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior