Bottom-Up Default Analysis of Corporate Solvency Risk An Application to Latin America

This paper suggests a novel approach to assess corporate sector solvency risk. The approach uses a Bottom-Up Default Analysis that projects probabilities of default of individual firms conditional on macroeconomic conditions and financial risk factors. This allows a direct macro-financial link to as...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Chan-Lau, Jorge
Other Authors: Lim, Cheng, Rodríguez-Delgado, Jose Daniel, Sutton, Bennett
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2017
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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300 |a 33 pages 
651 4 |a Brazil 
653 |a Economics 
653 |a Banks 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Industries: Financial Services 
653 |a Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies 
653 |a Banks and banking 
653 |a Mortgages 
653 |a Business enterprises 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Liquidity indicators 
653 |a Liquidity management 
653 |a Investment Decisions 
653 |a Commodity Markets 
653 |a Depository Institutions 
653 |a Commercial banks 
653 |a Capital Budgeting 
653 |a Financial institutions 
653 |a Micro Finance Institutions 
653 |a Ownership & organization of enterprises 
653 |a Corporate Finance and Governance: General 
653 |a Asset and liability management 
653 |a Economic sectors 
653 |a Corporate Finance 
653 |a Corporate sector 
653 |a Liquidity 
653 |a Loans 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Commodity prices 
653 |a Finance: General 
653 |a Portfolio Choice 
700 1 |a Lim, Cheng 
700 1 |a Rodríguez-Delgado, Jose Daniel 
700 1 |a Sutton, Bennett 
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520 |a This paper suggests a novel approach to assess corporate sector solvency risk. The approach uses a Bottom-Up Default Analysis that projects probabilities of default of individual firms conditional on macroeconomic conditions and financial risk factors. This allows a direct macro-financial link to assessing corporate performance and facilitates what-if scenarios. When extended with credit portfolio techniques, the approach can also assess the aggregate impact of changes in firm solvency risk on creditor banks’ capital buffers under different macroeconomic scenarios. As an illustration, we apply this approach to the corporate sector of the five largest economies in Latin America