The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural app...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Aslam, Aqib
Other Authors: Boz, Emine, Cerutti, Eugenio, Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2017
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery  |c Aqib Aslam, Emine Boz, Eugenio Cerutti, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, Petia Topalova 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2017 
300 |a 37 pages 
651 4 |a China, People's Republic of 
653 |a Balance of trade 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a International Trade Organizations 
653 |a Trade Policy 
653 |a Trade: Forecasting and Simulation 
653 |a Trade balance 
653 |a Real imports 
653 |a Trade: General 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a National accounts 
653 |a International Business Cycles 
653 |a Financial markets 
653 |a International trade 
653 |a Emerging and frontier financial markets 
653 |a Exports 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Financial services industry 
653 |a Empirical Studies of Trade 
653 |a Imports 
653 |a Finance: General 
700 1 |a Boz, Emine 
700 1 |a Cerutti, Eugenio 
700 1 |a Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos 
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520 |a Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach