Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries Policies, Institutions, or Shocks?

This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real no...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Bal Gunduz, Yasemin
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2017
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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300 |a 47 pages 
651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a International Lending and Debt Problems 
653 |a Debts, External 
653 |a External debt 
653 |a Debt burden 
653 |a Debt sustainability 
653 |a Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt 
653 |a Debt default 
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520 |a This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature