Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India An Outline of the Analytical Framework

India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper draws on Indian macroeconomic developments since 2000 and the experience of other count...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Benes, Jaromir
Other Authors: Clinton, Kevin, George, Asish, John, Joice
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2017
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India  |b An Outline of the Analytical Framework  |c Jaromir Benes, Kevin Clinton, Asish George, Joice John, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Pratik Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael, Hou Wang, Fan Zhang 
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300 |a 37 pages 
651 4 |a India 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Payment Systems 
653 |a Regimes 
653 |a Inflation targeting 
653 |a Financial services 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Production 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Production 
653 |a Standards 
653 |a Forecasting and Other Model Applications 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Economic theory 
653 |a Supply and demand 
653 |a Government and the Monetary System 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Economic Theory 
653 |a Output gap 
653 |a Keynesian 
653 |a Monetary economics 
653 |a Model Evaluation and Selection 
653 |a Supply shocks 
653 |a General Aggregative Models: Keynes 
653 |a Economic theory & philosophy 
653 |a Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Monetary Systems 
653 |a Post-Keynesian 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Monetary policy 
653 |a Studies of Particular Policy Episodes 
653 |a Central Banks and Their Policies 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis 
653 |a Monetary Policy 
653 |a Money and Monetary Policy 
653 |a Production and Operations Management 
653 |a Central bank policy rate 
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700 1 |a John, Joice 
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520 |a India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper draws on Indian macroeconomic developments since 2000 and the experience of other countries that adopted FIT to bring out insights on how credible policy with an emphasis on a strong nominal anchor can reduce the impact of supply shocks and improve macroeconomic stability. For illustrating the key issues given the unique structural characteristics of India and the policy options under an FIT framework, the paper describes an analytical framework using the core quarterly projection model (QPM). Simulations of the QPM are carried out to illustrate the monetary policy responses under different types of uncertainty and to bring out the importance of gaining credibility for improving monetary policy efficacy