Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies

In this paper we first compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012. We find that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than i...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio
Other Authors: Céspedes, Luis, Rebucci, Alessandro
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2015
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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100 1 |a Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio 
245 0 0 |a Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy  |b Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies  |c Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Luis Céspedes, Alessandro Rebucci 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2015 
300 |a 43 pages 
651 4 |a United States 
653 |a International finance 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Wealth 
653 |a International liquidity 
653 |a Real Estate 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Currency; Foreign exchange 
653 |a Saving 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Housing Supply and Markets 
653 |a Housing; Prices 
653 |a Asset and liability management 
653 |a National accounts 
653 |a Property & real estate 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
653 |a Consumption; Economics 
653 |a Consumption 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Macroeconomics: Consumption 
653 |a Exchange rates 
653 |a Finance: General 
653 |a Portfolio Choice 
653 |a Foreign exchange 
653 |a Investment Decisions 
653 |a Housing prices 
700 1 |a Céspedes, Luis 
700 1 |a Rebucci, Alessandro 
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520 |a In this paper we first compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012. We find that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than in advanced economies. We also find that they correlate with capital flows more closely than in advanced economies. We then condition the analysis on an exogenous change to a particular component of capital flows. We find that a global liquidity shock, identified by aggregating bank-to-bank cross border flows and by using the external instrumental variable approach of Stock and Watson (2012) and Mertens and Ravn (2013), has a much stronger impact on house prices and consumption in emerging markets than in advanced economies. In our empirical model, holding house prices or the exchange rate constant in response to this shock tends to dampen its effects on consumption in emerging economies