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A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months....

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Barhoumi, Karim
Other Authors: Ferrara, Laurent
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2015
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Business Cycles
Macroeconomic Aspects Of International Trade And Finance: Forecasting And Simulation
Cyclical Indicators
Trade: Forecasting And Simulation
Prices, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles: Forecasting And Simulation
Economic Growth
Macroeconomics
Prices, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles: General (includes Measurement And Data)
United States
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
Description
Summary:This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently
Physical Description:14 pages
ISBN:9781498307543

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