Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets

In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push” factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk aversion driv...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Ananchotikul, Nasha
Other Authors: Zhang, Longmei
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2014
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Currency; Foreign exchange 
653 |a Financial services 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Bond yields 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a Yield curve 
653 |a Asset prices 
653 |a Capital flows 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
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653 |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Investments: Bonds 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Information and Market Efficiency 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Capital movements 
653 |a Investment & securities 
653 |a Exchange rates 
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520 |a In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push” factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk aversion drive asset volatility in emerging markets? We use a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Multivariate GARCH framework to estimate the impact of portfolio flows and the VIX index on three asset prices, namely equity returns, bond yields and exchange rates, in 17 emerging economies. The analysis shows that global risk aversion has a significant impact on the volatility of asset prices, while the magnitude of that impact correlates with country characteristics, including financial openness, the exchange rate regime, as well as macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and the current account balance. In line with earlier literature, portfolio flows to emerging markets are also found to affect the level of asset prices, as was the case in particular during the global financial crisis