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Growth Now and Forever?

Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the basel...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Ho, Giang
Other Authors: Mauro, Paolo
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2014
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Depository Institutions
Income
Banks
Cross-country Output Convergence
Output Gap
Banks And Banking
Personal Income
Aggregate Productivity
Economic Forecasting
Micro Finance Institutions
Production
Exports And Imports
Mortgages
International Lending And Debt Problems
International Economics
External Debt
Debts, External
Personal Income, Wealth, And Their Distributions
National Accounts
Forecasting
Macroeconomics: Production
Forecasting And Other Model Applications
Macroeconomics
Measurement Of Economic Growth
Banking
Economic Theory
Debt Sustainability Analysis
Production And Operations Management
China, People's Republic Of
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
Description
Summary:Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon
Physical Description:27 pages
ISBN:9781498309820

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