Assessing Early Warning Systems How Have they Worked in Practice?
Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private an...
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , |
Format: | eBook |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Washington, D.C.
International Monetary Fund
2004
|
Series: | IMF Working Papers
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | |
Collection: | International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa |
Summary: | Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly |
---|---|
Physical Description: | 45 pages |
ISBN: | 9781451847284 |