Assessing Early Warning Systems How Have they Worked in Practice?
Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private an...
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| Other Authors: | , |
| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
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Washington, D.C.
International Monetary Fund
2004
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| Series: | IMF Working Papers
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| Online Access: | |
| Collection: | International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa |
| Summary: | Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly |
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| Physical Description: | 45 pages |
| ISBN: | 9781451847284 |